Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/24/2025

On June 24, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field for the second game of their series. The Brewers, at 43-36, find themselves in a solid position within the National League Central, while the Pirates, struggling at 32-48, rank near the bottom of the league. Pittsburgh is looking to build on their recent success after winning yesterday's matchup, which adds pressure on the Brewers, who are expected to win this matchup.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers. The right-hander has been performing well, with a Win/Loss record of 7-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.76. However, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression, as his 4.13 xFIP indicates he could be pitching slightly over his head. Peralta’s high flyball rate could play to his advantage against a Pirates lineup that has struggled to generate power, hitting the fewest home runs in MLB this season.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney will start for the Pirates. Although he has a decent ERA of 3.94, his underlying metrics show he may also be living on borrowed time. Heaney’s 4.52 SIERA and 4.59 xERA indicate that he has been somewhat fortunate this year. He is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, which is less than ideal, especially against a Brewers offense that, while only ranking 18th overall, has shown flashes of potential.

With the Brewers being a significant betting favorite, currently at -205, and boasting a high implied total of 4.37 runs, they seem well-positioned to continue their winning ways against a struggling Pirates team. This game should be a good opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on the Brewers' strong pitching and the Pirates' offensive inefficiencies.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney has relied on his slider 12.4% less often this year (15.5%) than he did last season (27.9%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 84.8-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 79.8-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's 2448-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 86th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Hitters such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andrew Heaney who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 6.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #30 club in MLB this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+10.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 52 games (+14.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.79, Milwaukee Brewers 4.61

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

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