Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 3/29/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 29, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with identical records of 1-1 this season. Despite their average start, the Marlins are looking to capitalize on their home advantage at LoanDepot Park. In their last game, the Marlins narrowly lost to the Pirates, setting the stage for this critical third game of the series.

Projected to start for the Marlins is Valente Bellozo, a right-handed pitcher who currently ranks as the 424th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the weakest in the league. His projections indicate he may struggle, expected to pitch 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and 5.0 hits. On the other hand, the Pirates will counter with left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who is also not faring well in the rankings. Falter is projected to pitch the same number of innings as Bellozo but has a slightly better average for earned runs allowed at 2.5. However, both pitchers are expected to have tough outings based on their projections.

Betting markets have set the Marlins' moneyline at +100, suggesting a competitive game against the Pirates, who sit at -120. The implied team totals reflect this tight matchup, with the Marlins projected for 4.15 runs and the Pirates slightly higher at 4.35 runs.

With both teams showing average performances early in the season and their pitchers struggling, fans can expect a closely contested game. The Marlins, aiming to bounce back from their previous loss, have the opportunity to leverage their home-field advantage against a similarly positioned Pirates squad.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bailey Falter to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 73 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Joey Bart has big-time HR ability (80th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Valente Bellozo has a pitch-to-contact profile (19th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Valente Bellozo in the 7th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The Miami Marlins projected lineup projects as the worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 61 games at home (+23.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+5.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Dane Myers has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 78% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins

Betting Odds

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