Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 7/9/2025

The Kansas City Royals have had the advantage in their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates so far. The Royals have won two games in a row over Pittsburgh and can complete a three-game sweep of the Pirates tonight. Another win would be huge for the Royals as they look to move closer to the .500 mark before the All-Star break. Here, I will break down this matchup and give you my Pirates vs Royals prediction for Wednesday night.

Our Pirates vs Royals Pick

• Pick: Royals Moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 7:40 PM EDT
• Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter (PIT) vs Kris Bubic (KC)
• Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Broadcast: SportsNet‐PIT and FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Bailey Falter has a 6-4 record and a 3.69 ERA this season. As is the case with all Pirates pitchers, his record would be better if he was getting more consistent run support. But Falter has been good individually this year.
• Kris Bubic ranks among the AL leaders with a 2.36 ERA. He is 7-6 on the year and probably deserves better in the win column as well.

Bullpen usage

The Royals have held the Pirates to three runs in each of the first two games of this series. Their bullpen has been the more consistent of the two teams in this game. That could impact the outcome of this game as well.

Recent team streaks

• The Pirates have lost five games in a row coming into Wednesday’s action.
• Royals have won three in a row and four of their last five.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Last 5 games: Pirates 0-5, Royals 4-1
• Night games: Pirates 22-31, Royals 27-29
• The Royals lead the season series against the Pirates by a 2-0 margin. This is the final game of their three-game regular-season series against one another.

Pirates vs Royals Model Projection

Score Projection: Pittsburgh 4 – Kansas City 5

Win Probability: Pittsburgh 18% | Kansas City 82%

Final Thoughts

Kris Bubic appears poised to capitalize on the recent struggles of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Even if Falter pitches well, he is unlikely to get enough run support for Pittsburgh to take this game. I will go with the Royals to win this game at home as Bubic should get a much-deserved decision by picking up the win.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.