Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 7/7/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals are both below .500 so far this season. But one of them has to win when they face off in Kansas City on Monday night. Here’s a comprehensive preview of tonight’s interleague showdown between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Kansas City Royals, including my Pirates vs Royals prediction for their series opener.

Our Pirates vs Royals Pick

• Pick: Kansas City Royals moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals
• Date & Time: Monday, July 7, 2025, 7:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney (PIT) vs Noah Cameron (KC)
• Stadium: Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Broadcast: FDSKC and SportsNet PT

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Andrew Heaney (PIT): Heaney is 4–7 with a 4.16 ERA. On the road, he’s struggled, going 1–5 with a 5.79 ERA and will look to buck that trend against the Royals here.
• Noah Cameron (KC): Cameron has posted a solid 2.56 ERA on the season. But he doesn’t have many wins to show for it, going 2-4 on the year. He hasn’t recorded a win since May 28.

Bullpen Usage

Both teams are in the top half of the league in bullpen ERA this season. But the Pirates have been especially good with their relief pitching. Pittsburgh is sixth in the league in bullpen ERA and they will need their bullpen more than ever with Heaney getting the start in this game.

Recent Team Streaks

• Pirates: 6–4 over the last 10, but were just swept in a three-game series by Seattle.
• Royals: 5–5 in their last 10. They won two of three against the Diamondbacks in their last series and they’ve won three of their last four games.

Betting Trends & H2H

• This is the first of a three-game season series between these teams this year.
• Both of these teams have gone under the total in 58% of their games or more this season.
• Pittsburgh is 12-32 on the road in 2025.
• Kansas City is 20-24 in their home games.

Pirates vs Royals Model Projection

Score Projection: Royals 5 – Pirates 4

Win Probability: Royals 52%, Pirates 48%

Final Thoughts

To me, Noah Cameron’s ability to limit damage early sets up the Royals’ bullpen well, even though the Pirates have the better pen overall. Offensively, Kansas City has more reliable talent, where Pittsburgh’s bats lack consistency away from home.

My model projects a one-run win for the Royals in this game. I’ll take Kansas City to win this game as a moneyline favorite, relying on hitters like Bobby Witt Jr. to help them get through this contest and earn their fourth win in five games.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.