Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 7/8/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ dismal season continued with a loss to the Kansas City Royals on Monday. The Pirates and Royals will meet again on Tuesday. Here’s a detailed preview of tonight’s duel between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium, including my Pirates vs Royals prediction for the second game of this three-game series.

Our Pirates vs Royals Pick

• Pick: Royals moneyline (-144)
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 8, 2025, 7:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller (3–10, 3.64 ERA) vs Seth Lugo (6–5, 2.65 ERA)
• Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Broadcast: SportsNet-PIT and FDSN Kansas City

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Mitch Keller has a respectable 3.64 ERA. But he is 3-10 as the Pirates have done very little to help him out in his starts.
• Seth Lugo owns a solid 2.65 ERA and a 6-5 record. Lugo has a 2.42 ERA at home and has a great chance to improve that against a bad Pirates team.

Bullpen Usage

• The Pirates bullpen showed vulnerability in yesterday’s outing when Andrew Heaney exited. Pittsburgh’s relievers gave up five runs in five innings and will need to be better in this game.
• The Royals only needed two innings out of their bullpen on Monday. Their pen gave up one run in those two innings. But the game was already well in hand when they allowed that run.

Recent Team Streaks

• Pittsburgh has lost four straight games by a combined margin of 17-3.
• Kansas City has won two straight games and four of their last five.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Royals are 1-0 against the Pirates this year after winning Monday’s series opener.
• Pittsburgh is 12-33 on the road. Kansas City is 21-24 at home.
• Both teams have stayed under the total in 58% of their games or more.
• Kansas City is 47-44 on the runline this year. Pittsburgh is 45-46 on the runline.

Pirates vs Royals Model Projection

Score Projection: Pirates 3 – Royals 5

Win Probability: Pirates 38%, Royals 62%

Final Thoughts

I don’t see a huge difference in starting pitching talent going into this game. But I do see a big difference everywhere else in these two teams. Pittsburgh has been terrible at providing run support for Keller and closing out games with their bullpen. Expect Kansas City to win this contest and to hand the Pirates their fifth loss in a row.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.