Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/29/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Jake Bloss - Astros

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Minute Maid Park on July 29, 2024, in the first game of an interleague series. Houston, riding an above-average season with a 55-50 record, sits reasonably well in their playoff hunt. Pittsburgh, hovering around average at 53-52, also remains competitive.

The pitching matchup is intriguing. Jake Bloss takes the mound for the Astros, sporting a rough 6.94 ERA across his three starts and a lowly #239 rank in the Power Rankings. He's had a tough season, but his 4.71 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating he could bounce back. On the flip side, Paul Skenes, the Pirates' right-hander, is having an elite season. Ranked #3 in the pitcher Power Rankings, Skenes boasts an impressive 1.93 ERA over 12 starts, although his 2.55 xERA hints he's been a tad fortunate.

Houston’s offense stands out against Skenes. Ranked 9th in overall talent and towering with the 2nd best team batting average, the Astros bring a solid batting lineup to the plate. However, facing Skenes, a strikeout specialist with a 34.2 K%, might pose a challenge, though Houston’s hitters are notably tough to strike out, ranking 3rd in least strikeouts.

The Pirates' offensive struggles might be a reprieve for Houston’s pitchers. Sitting 28th in overall offense, Pittsburgh ranks poorly in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. Bloss, a low-strikeout pitcher facing this high-strikeout offense (ranked 5th worst), could find an edge here.

Astros' Jeremy Pena has been red-hot, leading the team over the last week with a .391 average and a 1.025 OPS. For Pittsburgh, Rowdy Tellez has shined, batting .455 with a 1.448 OPS over the last five games.

While the Pirates are favored, sharp bettors might see value in the Astros, who could capitalize if Skenes doesn’t bring his best stuff. The game total set at 7.5 runs suggests a tight, low-scoring affair, but Houston’s potent lineup could tilt the balance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Over his previous 3 GS, Paul Skenes has suffered a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2279 rpm over the entire season to 2210 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Josh Palacios has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 82.3-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Rowdy Tellez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

John Bloss has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 13.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Hitters such as Alex Bregman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Paul Skenes who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros's expected catcher in today's matchup) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 71 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+15.65 Units / 30% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.29 vs Houston Astros 3.61

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