Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Betting Pick & Preview – 7/30/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 30, 2024, at Minute Maid Park in the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, with the Astros having an above-average season at 55-51, while the Pirates are slightly behind at 54-52.

Houston's offense, ranked 9th overall and 2nd in batting average, will look to capitalize on this matchup against Bailey Falter, one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Falter, a lefty, has a 4.08 ERA this season but has been fortunate according to his 4.72 xFIP. He has struggled with consistency, sporting a 4-7 record and projecting to pitch just 4.5 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs on average.

On the mound for the Astros will be Hunter Brown, a right-hander ranked 45th among approximately 350 starting pitchers by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Brown has been solid this season with a 9-6 record and a 4.00 ERA, though his 3.38 xERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. Brown projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.6 batters on average, giving Houston a notable edge in the pitching department.

Offensively, the Astros have an advantage, having recorded the 9th most home runs and the 2nd highest team batting average in MLB. Conversely, the Pirates' offense ranks poorly, sitting 28th overall and 26th in team batting average. Pittsburgh will need standout performances from players like Michael A. Taylor, who has been hot over the last week with a .364 batting average and a 1.227 OPS, to compete.

Houston also has a slight edge in bullpen performance, ranking 12th compared to Pittsburgh's 16th. Look for the Astros to leverage their offensive firepower and superior pitching to secure a win in this matchup.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (65.5 vs. 52.8% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

As it relates to his home runs, Michael A. Taylor has experienced some negative variance this year. His 5.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's 95.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 84th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yordan Alvarez has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 14.6% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Houston Astros with a 19.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+9.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+23.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.84 vs Houston Astros 5.06

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