Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 6/18/2025

The Detroit Tigers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park on June 18, 2025, for the second game of their interleague series. The Tigers have enjoyed a strong season with a 47-27 record, positioning themselves as a competitive force in the league. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling, sitting at 29-45, and are currently ranked 29th in MLB offensively. In their previous matchup, the Tigers dominated the Pirates, securing an easy victory.

Projected starters for this game are Tarik Skubal for Detroit and Andrew Heaney for Pittsburgh. Skubal, who is having an elite season with a 7-2 record and a stellar 1.99 ERA, ranks as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His high strikeout rate of 32.7% could present a significant challenge for the Pirates, who are among the most strikeout-prone teams in the league. Skubal projects to average 6.1 innings pitched, allowing just 1.6 earned runs and striking out 8.2 batters, while the projections suggest he could have a high strikeout day against a floundering Pirates lineup.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney has been less effective, with a 3-5 record and a 3.33 ERA. While this may seem respectable, his 4.17 xFIP suggests that he could be due for regression. Heaney's projected metrics indicate he might struggle, with projections of only 5.0 innings pitched, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out just 4.6 batters.

From an offensive perspective, the Tigers rank 9th overall in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Pirates' offense is faltering at 29th. Considering the current odds, the projections favor the Tigers significantly, with a high team total of 4.40 runs compared to the Pirates' low 2.60 runs. With Skubal on the mound and the Tigers' strong hitting lineup, they are set to capitalize on the Pirates' struggles once again.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tarik Skubal.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal has used his sinker 6.8% more often this season (27.3%) than he did last season (20.5%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 56 games (+12.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+15.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 43% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 2.95, Detroit Tigers 4.76

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

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