Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park for the first game of their series. The Tigers, currently holding a solid 46-27 record, are enjoying a strong season, while the Pirates struggle at 29-44. This matchup features Casey Mize, who has been effective with a 2.95 ERA, against Bailey Falter, who has faced challenges with a 3.36 ERA.

The Tigers have lost two straight games, but they will like their chances of turning things around against a Pirates team that ranks 29th in overall offensive performance. Mize, despite being labeled as average in advanced stats, is facing a Pirates lineup that has hit only 50 home runs this season, the second-lowest in MLB. This could give Mize a significant edge, as the Pirates may struggle to capitalize on his flyball tendencies.

Bailey Falter, on the other hand, is projected to have a tough outing. He has a low strikeout rate of 15.4% and is set to face a Tigers offense that ranks 9th overall in MLB. The projections suggest that Falter might allow an average of 3.0 earned runs and 5.5 hits, which could spell trouble against a Tigers lineup that has been relatively consistent.

With the Tigers’ bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they have the advantage in late-game situations, providing further support to their already strong position in this matchup. The Tigers are favored with a moneyline of -195, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.63 runs compared to the Pirates’ 3.37 runs. As the teams take the field, all eyes will be on how Mize can exploit the Pirates' weaknesses while the Tigers look to continue their strong run in front of their home crowd.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has used his change-up 5.8% more often this year (6.4%) than he did last season (0.6%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Pittsburgh's 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in baseball: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize's 93.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.6-mph drop off from last year's 95.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Spencer Torkelson's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90.5-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 83.2-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 68 games (+13.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+15.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.47, Detroit Tigers 5.03

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

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