Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks 6/15/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
  • Ty Blach - Rockies

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off on June 15, 2024, at Coors Field in the second game of their series. The Rockies, currently struggling with a 24-45 record, are hoping to bounce back after a tough season. Meanwhile, the Pirates, with a 33-36 record, are having a below-average season but remain competitive.

On the mound for the Rockies will be left-handed pitcher Ty Blach, who has had a challenging year. Blach's 4.84 ERA and 2-4 Win/Loss record reflect his struggles, although his 4.29 FIP indicates he's been a bit unlucky and might improve going forward. Blach projects to pitch 4.4 innings and allow 3.7 earned runs, which is concerning given the Pirates' batting lineup.

The Pirates will counter with right-handed pitcher Jared Jones, who has been solid this season with a 3.27 ERA and a 4-5 Win/Loss record. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Jones ranks as the 83rd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, showcasing his above-average performance. Jones projects to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, a slightly better outlook than Blach's.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 18th in MLB, with a notable 11th place in team batting average but a dismal 26th in home runs. Ezequiel Tovar has been a bright spot, hitting .391 with 3 homers and a 1.332 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Pirates' offense ranks 28th, struggling with a 25th place in team batting average and 24th in home runs. Rowdy Tellez has been their best hitter recently, batting .375 with a 1.069 OPS.

The Rockies' bullpen ranks 26th, while the Pirates' bullpen is a respectable 14th, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This disparity could play a crucial role in the later innings.

With the Pirates favored at -170 and an implied win probability of 61%, they have the edge in this matchup. However, the Rockies, with an implied team total of 4.60 runs, could capitalize on Jones's tendency to allow hits and walks. This game promises to be an intriguing National League battle.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Jared Jones in the 89th percentile among all SPs in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

This year, there has been a decline in Ke'Bryan Hayes's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.11 ft/sec last year to 26.41 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Henry Davis, Michael A. Taylor, Nick Gonzales).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 28 games (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Nolan Jones has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+8.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 7.41 vs Colorado Rockies 5.41

Get daily MLB picks here.