Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
  • Rhett Lowder - Reds

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off at Great American Ball Park on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in a National League Central matchup with little at stake in terms of standings. The Reds, currently sitting at a 75-80 record, and the Pirates, at 72-82, are both having below-average seasons and are out of contention for postseason glory.

In the previous game of the series, Cincinnati emerged victorious, setting the stage for Pittsburgh to seek redemption. On the mound for the Reds is Rhett Lowder, a right-hander ranked 189th among starting pitchers this season, making him one of the lower-rated starters in MLB. Despite his excellent 1.74 ERA, Lowder's xFIP of 4.08 suggests some underlying luck, casting doubt on his sustainability. Lowder projects to have a tough day, likely allowing 2.7 earned runs over 4.5 innings.

For Pittsburgh, Jared Jones takes the mound. Ranked 69th, Jones stands as an above-average pitcher with a respectable 3.85 ERA. His projections are similarly challenging, with an expected 2.6 earned runs over 4.5 innings, but his average strikeout projection offers some hope for the Pirates.

Offensively, the Reds rank 16th in MLB by Power Rankings but have struggled with the bat, especially in terms of batting average, where they are 26th. However, their 16th rank in home runs and 2nd in stolen bases highlight some offensive potential. The Pirates' offense, on the other hand, ranks a lowly 27th overall, with their slugging numbers equally concerning at 26th in home runs.

Despite the Reds' edge in offensive rankings, the Pirates' bullpen, ranking 18th, may offer a steadier hand than the Reds' 25th-ranked pen. In this clash of struggling teams, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees a tightly contested game, projecting both offenses to light up the scoreboard with high run totals. With the Reds slightly favored, expect a close battle as both teams aim to finish the season on a positive note.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Jones to throw 80 pitches in today's game (least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Cincinnati's 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Billy Cook, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Billy Cook, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

With 6 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Rhett Lowder figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games at home (+14.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 69 away games (+6.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.49 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.15

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