Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/25/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates square off again on June 25, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. Both teams enter the contest with identical 37-41 records, highlighting their below-average seasons. In yesterday's matchup, the Reds secured an 11-5 victory over the Pirates, showcasing their offensive potential. This win could give Cincinnati some much-needed momentum as they look to build on their recent success.

Hunter Greene, the Reds' projected starter, has been a bright spot this season with a 3.35 ERA and a strong 5-2 record. His last outing on June 19 was stellar, pitching six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Pirates. Greene's high-strikeout ability (26.6 K%) could be a significant advantage against a Pirates lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests he might regress in the future.

Mitch Keller takes the mound for Pittsburgh, boasting a solid 8-4 record and a 3.11 ERA. Keller's last start also came on June 19, where he mirrored Greene's dominance with seven scoreless innings and seven strikeouts. However, Keller's 3.90 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season and may face challenges ahead.

Offensively, the Reds have the edge, ranking 19th in overall offense compared to the Pirates' 28th. Cincinnati's lineup, led by Elly De La Cruz, has shown flashes of brilliance, notably ranking 2nd in stolen bases. Jonathan India has been particularly hot, batting .478 with a 1.303 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Bryan Reynolds has been a standout for Pittsburgh, maintaining a .278 average and .813 OPS, and is coming off a strong week himself.

The Reds' bullpen is a potential weakness, ranked 22nd, while the Pirates' bullpen sits at a more respectable 17th. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Reds are slightly favored with a 55% win probability, offering a slight edge over the implied odds.

With both teams having similar records and below-average seasons, this matchup could hinge on the starting pitchers' performances and the Reds' ability to capitalize on their offensive strengths. Expect a close game, but Cincinnati’s recent form and home-field advantage might just tip the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 4th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games at home (+12.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 64 games (+18.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.20 Units / 49% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.04 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.27

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