Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at the Great American Ball Park on September 20, 2024, both teams find themselves out of contention in the National League Central, making this series a matter of pride and future planning. The Reds sit at 74-80, while the Pirates are a notch lower at 72-81. With neither team in the hunt for a playoff spot, this matchup becomes an opportunity for players to finish the season strong and make their case for next year.

The Reds, backed by a solid, yet inconsistent season from Nick Martinez, look to leverage their slightly superior offensive ranking of 16th versus the Pirates' 28th. Despite his respectable 3.37 ERA, Martinez's peripheral stats suggest some luck has been involved, with a higher than desirable 4.01 xFIP indicating potential regression.

The Pirates counter with Mitch Keller on the mound, who has a solid 3.87 ERA but is considered below average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Keller has had a tougher time, facing an offense that ranks 2nd in stolen bases and possesses average power. His projections don't bode well either, with expected high earned runs and walks allowed.

The Reds are slightly favored according to betting markets, with a moneyline set at -125, implying a win probability of 53%. THE BAT X, recognized as the leading MLB projection system, gives the Reds a 54% chance of victory, aligning with the odds. Considering the game's high projected total of 9.0 runs, expect an offensive showcase, especially with both starting pitchers projected to allow a significant number of hits and runs. This could be a chance for the Reds to capitalize on their slight edge in offensive prowess, looking to secure a victory in the series opener.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller has used his cut-fastball 8.8% less often this year (15.5%) than he did last year (24.3%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit 30.5% of their balls in the air at least 100 mph this year, making them the #9 group of hitters in baseball by this stat.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the worst among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ty France has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 85.1-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 123 games (+12.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 30 games (+17.50 Units / 58% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.32 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.41

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