The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will face off in the last week of the regular season on Tuesday night at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are tied for the final Wild Card spot in the National League going into this series opener and they are favored to get a win at home here. Before the action begins from Cincinnati, continue reading to get my Pirates vs Reds prediction from Ohio.
Our Pirates vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Reds -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 23, 2025, 6:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Johan Oviedo vs Brady Singer
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Pitching matchup: Brady Singer has been solid this season and is pitching under pressure here during Cincinnati’s playoff chase. Pittsburgh’s Johan Oviedo has also looked good in his limited starts since coming back from injury. The starting pitching matchup in this game could help decide not just the outcome of this contest, but the outcome of the Wild Card race as well.
- Key Players: Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds in power numbers and has been a difference maker in tight games. Spencer Steer leads the Reds in home runs and the Reds sure could use one from him tonight. Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds are among the few reliable offensive threats for the Pirates.
- Recent team streaks: The Reds have won five straight games after sweeping the Cubs over the weekend. The Pirates have won two games in a row and will try to extend their winning streak while playing spoiler in this series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Brady Singer (CIN) | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Reds lead the season series 6-4 against the Pirates coming into this game.
- The Reds have won the last two games that these teams have played.
- Pittsburgh is 23-52 on the road for the season.
- Cincinnati is 44-34 in their home games on the year.
Pirates vs Reds Model Projection
- Score Projection: Reds 6 – Pirates 3
- Win Probability: Reds 65%, Pirates 35%
Final Thoughts
Cincinnati is in a must-win situation and has been responding lately, with strong performances both at the plate and on the mound. Brady Singer gives them a better chance than what Pittsburgh brings with Oviedo, especially given the Pirates’ road struggles and their offense that tends to disappear in key moments. I’ll lay the runline with the Reds in this game, as they should keep the pressure on the Mets in the final sprint for the last Wild Card spot in the NL.
