Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/12/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 12, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field in an interleague matchup. The White Sox are enduring a dreadful season with a 27-68 record, while the Pirates are slightly below average at 45-48. This game is the first in the series between these two teams, and both teams are looking to improve their fortunes.

Garrett Crochet will take the mound for the White Sox. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Crochet is the #3 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite arm despite his team's struggles. Crochet boasts a 3.08 ERA and a 2.47 xFIP, indicating he's been somewhat unlucky this season. He's projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 1.8 earned runs, striking out 7.7 batters, and giving up 4.0 hits and 1.7 walks. Facing a high-strikeout Pirates offense (5th most strikeouts in MLB), Crochet's high strikeout rate (34.8 K%) could give him a significant edge.

On the other side, Luis Ortiz will start for the Pirates. Despite his 2.95 ERA, his 4.26 xFIP signals that he has been fortunate this season. Ortiz is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 4.0 batters, and giving up 5.1 hits and 1.5 walks. Ortiz's high-flyball tendencies (39 FB%) could play well against the power-starved White Sox, who rank 26th in team home runs.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. The White Sox rank 29th in batting average and 29th overall in offensive power rankings, while the Pirates are slightly better at 25th in batting average and 27th in overall offensive power rankings. However, the Pirates have shown average power, ranking 15th in home runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis Ortiz's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (54.9% vs. 47.2% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nick Gonzales has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 13.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 24.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Garrett Crochet's 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 97th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Corey Julks is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox projected batting order projects as the 2nd-worst of the day in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+5.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+16.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.60 Units / 93% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.79 vs Chicago White Sox 4.04

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