Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 2, 2024, this matchup carries implications for teams with contrasting seasons. The Cubs, currently at 71-66, are enjoying an above-average season and are positioned well in the National League Central, while the Pirates sit at 63-73, having struggled significantly this year. The Cubs have seen better days and will look to capitalize on their home advantage at Wrigley Field.

In their last outing, the Cubs had an offensive explosion against the Washington Nationals and they will look for another victory with Jameson Taillon slated to take the mound today. Taillon, despite being ranked as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB, holds a solid ERA of 3.85 this season. He faces a Pirates lineup that has been plagued by strikeouts, ranking 5th in MLB for the most strikeouts this year. This scenario could favor Taillon, who has shown the ability to limit earned runs.

On the other hand, Jared Jones will take the hill for Pittsburgh. Jones has been slightly more effective, ranking 69th among pitchers, but his average innings pitched and below-average strikeout rate could hinder the Pirates' chances against a Cubs offense that, while ranking 14th overall, shows flashes of potency and ranks 8th in stolen bases.

The projections suggest that the Cubs could score around 4.04 runs, giving them a slight edge in this contest. With Taillon's ability to exploit the Pirates’ weaknesses, the Cubs may have the upper hand in this matchup, despite the Pirates looking to break a streak of underwhelming performances. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a lower-scoring affair, which aligns with both teams' recent struggles offensively.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jared Jones's 96.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 97th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Oneil Cruz has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 21.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 33.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates ranks them as the #9 offense in baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Generating 17.4 outs per start this year on average, Jameson Taillon places him the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In the last week, Ian Happ's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.4% up to 21.4%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+11.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 97 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.91 vs Chicago Cubs 4.04

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