Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Domingo German - Pirates
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 4, 2024, the stakes are clear in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs sit at 71-68, having an average season, while the Pirates are struggling at 65-73, marking them as a below-average team. This game represents an opportunity for the Cubs to solidify their position, especially given the projections favoring them.

In their last outing, the Pirates enjoyed a shutout victory over the struggling Cubs. The Cubs are projected to start Shota Imanaga, who boasts an impressive 11-3 record and a stellar ERA of 3.14 this season. With an advanced-stat Power Ranking placing him as the 78th best starting pitcher in MLB, Imanaga is seen as an above-average option on the mound. His ability to strike out batters—projecting 6.3 strikeouts today—could be crucial against a Pirates offense that ranks 27th in the league.

Conversely, the Pirates will counter with Domingo German, whose 6.11 ERA is alarming. Despite some indicators suggesting he might improve, he remains a high-walk pitcher (14.6 BB%) facing a Cubs offense that excels at drawing walks, ranking 5th in MLB. This mismatch could give the Cubs an edge, especially as they have a high implied team total of 4.57 runs for today's game.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees the Cubs as the favorites with a projected win probability of 59%. With Dansby Swanson heating up—recording 9 hits and 5 RBIs in the last week—the Cubs are poised to capitalize on their opportunities against a struggling Pirates squad.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Domingo German to be on a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Extreme flyball batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 8 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Shota Imanaga will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Miguel Amaya has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games at home (+11.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+13.15 Units / 93% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.18 vs Chicago Cubs 4.83

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