Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 8/17/2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs will wrap up a three-game weekend series against each other on Sunday afternoon. Both teams have taken one game to start this series from Wrigley Field. The winner of this game will claim this three-game set and have some positive momentum going into their next series. Before this game begins from the Windy City, you can find my Pirates vs Cubs prediction below.
Our Pirates vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Over 7.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 17, 2025, 2:20 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Javier Assad (0–1, 9.00 ERA) vs Carmen Mlodzinski (2–7, 4.20 ERA)
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: MARQ and SportsNet PT
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Javier Assad will get the start on Sunday for the Cubs. His last appearance on August 12 saw him allow four runs and eight hits over four innings. He looked good in his rehab assignments but struggled in his return to the majors. Assad will look to rebound in this series finale.
Carmen Mlodzinski will get the ball for the Pirates. He enters this one at 2–7 with a 4.20 ERA. Mlodzinski has a 1.39 WHIP. That number is far from ideal but looks great compared to Assad’s WHIP over a small sample size.
Playoff Situation
The Chicago Cubs are sitting at the top of the National League Wild Card standings. The Cubbies have fallen way behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings. That likely leaves the Cubs with a Wild Card spot to play for. As long as they don’t collapse over the next six weeks, it would be hard for Chicago to miss the playoffs.
Recent team streaks
The Cubs are 2-3 in their last five games but they did beat the Pirates on Saturday afternoon. Pittsburgh has lost four of its last five games and are in last place in the NL Central.
Best Player Props
| Category | Player | Prop |
|---|---|---|
| Home runs | Seiya Suzuki | Over 0.5 |
| Strikeouts | Javier Assad | Under 5.5 |
| Total bases | Kyle Tucker | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Chicago has a 6-3 lead over the Pirates in the regular season series between these teams.
- The total has gone under in six straight games between the Cubs and Pirates.
Pirates vs Cubs Model Projection
Score Projection: Cubs 5 – Pirates 4
Win Probability: Cubs 60%, Pirates 40%
Final Thoughts
The Cubs are much better than the Pirates this season. But an overall advantage in talent might not be enough to overcome the fact that Javier Assad is starting this game for the Cubs. Instead of taking a side in this matchup, I’m more inclined to take the over. Both starting pitchers look vulnerable to getting smacked around in this game and we should see some offensive fireworks.
