Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 8/16/2025
The Chicago Cubs will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon. Chicago comes in as the clear favorite but they were favored before losing Friday’s series opener as well. The Cubbies will aim to bounce back here and the Pirates will look for their second straight upset win over their division rivals. Here, I have broken down this game and have provided you with my Pirates vs Cubs prediction below.
Our Pirates vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs –1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 16, 2025, 2:20 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Shōta Imanaga vs Mike Burrows
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Shota Imanaga brings consistency and a sub-4.00 ERA into Saturday’s game. Imanaga has a strong record at home on the season and he will look to prevent the Pirates from stealing a second straight at Wrigley. Mike Burrows has not been as effective as Imanaga this year. Burrows has a 4.66 ERA and his losing record reflects Pittsburgh’s issues both on the mound and at the plate.
Key Players
- Cubs: Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki lead the Cubs with 27 home runs. Crow-Armstrong knocked in Suzuki with a hit on Friday.
- Pirates: Jack Suwinski delivered a ninth-inning game-winning home run on Friday to snap a five-game losing streak for the Pirates. His performance will be something to watch in this contest.
Recent team streaks
- The Pirates had a five-game losing streak snapped on Friday when they beat the Cubs.
- The Cubs have lost two games in a row and they have lost four of their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Shōta Imanaga | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Nico Hoerner | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Cubs lead the season series against the Pirates 5-3 after their loss on Friday.
- Chicago is 31-24 in day games this season.
- Pittsburgh is 22-30 in their day games in 2025.
- The Pirates had given up double-digits on the scoreboard in three of their last four games before their 3-2 win on Friday.
Pirates vs Cubs Model Projection
Score Projection: Chicago Cubs 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 3
Win Probability: Cubs 58%, Pirates 42%
Final Thoughts
This game feels like the perfect spot for the Cubs to bounce back from their disappointing performance in their last outing. The bats of the Cubs should wake up after a sluggish start to this series. Chicago has hit nearly twice as many home runs as Pittsburgh has this season. I expect some power from the Cubs here to even this series at a game apiece going into Sunday’s rubber match.
