Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 6/15/2025

As the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for their matchup on June 15, 2025, the stakes are clear: the Cubs are looking to solidify their place in the National League Central, boasting a solid record of 43-28. Meanwhile, the Pirates, struggling at 29-43, are having a tough season. The Cubs took the previous game in this series, showcasing their offensive prowess against a faltering Pirates squad.

The Cubs will rely on Colin Rea, who despite being ranked as the 216th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a decent year with a 4-2 record and a respectable 3.92 ERA. He has been somewhat fortunate this season, as indicated by his 4.95 xERA, suggesting he may face challenges going forward. However, he is set to face a Pirates lineup that ranks as the 28th best offense in MLB, making this a favorable matchup for the Cubs. Rea’s ability to limit walks, with an average of 1.3 walks projected today, could exploit the Pirates' offensive struggles.

On the other side, Mitch Keller will take the mound for Pittsburgh. Though his 1-9 record is concerning, his 4.15 ERA is above average, indicating he might be due for a breakout. Keller has shown good control this season, with a low walk rate, which may hinder the Cubs’ ability to capitalize on walks, as they rank 5th in MLB in that category.

As the Cubs aim to maintain their momentum with one of the best offenses in MLB — ranking 4th overall and leading in key metrics like batting average and home runs — they are positioned as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -170. Conversely, Pittsburgh, despite their low ranking in offensive performance, does possess a strong stolen base threat, ranking 5th in that department. This game presents a clear contrast: a strong Cubs offense against a struggling Pirates team, making the Cubs the team to watch today.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Generating 17.6 outs per start this year on average, Mitch Keller places him the 87th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme flyball batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Colin Rea.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Colin Rea has used his four-seamer 28.2% more often this season (48.1%) than he did last year (19.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen projects as the 7th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 games (+8.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+16.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.7, Chicago Cubs 4.05

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Colin Rea - Cubs

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