Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 5/19/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On May 19, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an exciting National League Central matchup. The Cubs, currently with a season record of 26-21, are having a good season, while the Pirates are struggling with a record of 21-26.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, who has been performing well this year. Taillon has started five games, boasting a 3-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 1.61. However, his 4.59 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Pirates will likely start right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller. Keller has started nine games this season, with a respectable 4-3 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.93. However, his 4.63 xERA indicates that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in performance going forward.

In terms of offensive firepower, the Cubs have been solid this season, ranking 13th in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking 9th, and stolen bases, ranking 6th. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in MLB. Their team batting average ranks 26th, and their home run production ranks 23rd.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 56%. The Pirates, meanwhile, are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 44%.

Both teams have their standout hitters. Unfortunately, the information regarding the best hitters of each team is missing. However, it is worth noting that over the last 7 games, the Cubs have been led by Patrick Wisdom, while the Pirates have relied on Edward Olivares.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average hurler, Mitch Keller has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 5.3 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bryan Reynolds has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 14.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 37.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski, Jared Triolo).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has utilized his sinker 6.7% less often this season (4%) than he did last season (10.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Nick Madrigal's 0.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs batters collectively rank near the bottom of MLB since the start of last season ( 10th-worst) when assessing their 88.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+16.45 Units / 40% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.89 vs Chicago Cubs 4.18

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