Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 8/31/2025
The Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates will close out their three-game series from Fenway Park on Sunday afternoon. Boston has dropped the first two games of this series at home and the Pirates will look to pull off a surprising sweep with a win in this contest. Before the Pirates and Red Sox go at it from Fenway, continue reading to get my Pirates vs Red Sox prediction for the finale of this interleague series.
Our Pirates vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: August 31, 2025, 1:35 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs Lucas Giolito
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Mitch Keller is listed as the starter for the Pirates in this contest. He enters with a record of 6-12 and an ERA of 4.35. Keller relies on a mix of fastball and breaking pitches but has been inconsistent this season with elevated walk rates in several outings. Lucas Giolito has been a steady piece of the Boston rotation at 9-2 with a 3.47 ERA. Giolito has pitched well throughout the year and has made the Sox a deserved favorite going into this game.
Playoff Picture
The Pirates are out of the playoff picture this year but they are playing with pride lately and have clearly not given up on things. Boston holds the second Wild Card spot in the American League this year and will look to protect their spot in the postseason with a victory today.
Recent Team Streaks
The Pirates have won two games in a row and four of their last five games. The Red Sox have dropped two games in a row and will try to put an end to their losing streak against the lowly Pirates in this matchup.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Lucas Giolito | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Mitch Keller | Under 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Pittsburgh has a 2-0 lead in the season series between these teams.
- This is the final regular-season game scheduled between these teams for the year.
- The Pirates have outscored the Red Sox 14-5 over the last two games.
- The over/under has gone 1-1 in the two games between these teams for the year.
Pirates vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Pittsburgh 3 – Boston 5
Win Probability: Pittsburgh 37%, Boston 63%
Final Thoughts
The Pirates have had the upper hand in this three-game series so far. But I think that we will see the Red Sox get a much-needed win at home to salvage a game in this series today. Giolito gives the Sox a decided advantage in the starting pitching department and that should mean a win by at least two runs for a Boston team that will be desperate not to drop three straight winnable home games.
