Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 9/9/2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates open a three-game set at Oriole Park on Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles. Pittsburgh is coming off a sweep at the hands of the best team in baseball and will look to bounce back in this contest. Before these sub-.500 teams do battle in Baltimore, you can find my analysis for this game and my Pirates vs Orioles prediction below.
Our Pirates vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: Orioles moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 9, 2025, 6:35 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Mike Burrows vs Kyle Bradish
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
- Broadcast: MASN, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Key Storylines
- Pittsburgh had a very interesting week last week. They earned a three-game sweep of the Dodgers, then lost in a three-game sweep against the Brewers.
- Baltimore’s recent surge includes a sweep in San Diego and consecutive walk-offs versus the Dodgers before dropping Sunday’s finale.
- Both clubs will see a right-hander on the mound in this game and seasonal splits show Pittsburgh’s offense lagging versus right-handed pitching. Baltimore has produced better against righties than lefties.
Pitching matchup
Pittsburgh: Mike Burrows enters this game with a 2-4 record and a 4.08 ERA. Burrows has give up 12 home runs in 81.2 innings of work and he will look to keep the ball in the park against an Orioles lineup that is inconsistent but dangerous.
Baltimore: Kyle Bradish has made two big-league starts since returning from injury. He has 10.0 IP with a 3.60 ERA, 15 K, and a 1.00 WHIP. His slider and two-seamer are back with bite, and his strikeout punch is intact. Expect a conservative workload but Bradish could put the Orioles in a position to win this game.
Recent team streaks
- The Pirates have dropped three games in a row coming into this matchup with the Orioles.
- Baltimore had a five-game winning streak snapped in their last game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Gunnar Henderson | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Jackson Holliday | Home Run | Over 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game between the Pirates and Orioles this season.
- Pittsburgh is 22-47 on the road this season.
- Baltimore is 33-38 at home on the year.
- Baltimore is 21-24 against interleague opponents this season.
- The Pirates are 15-27 in interleague games.
Pirates vs Orioles Model Projection
Score Projection: Pirates 3 – Orioles 4
Win Probability: Pirates 44% – Orioles 56%
Final Thoughts
I’m going to go with the Baltimore Orioles to win at home in this matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have lost over two-thirds of their road games on the year. They should struggle with Bradish and his high strikeout volume in this matchup. Look for Bradish to exit this game with the lead and for the Orioles to hold onto this game in the end.
