Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 9/11/2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates will face the Baltimore Orioles in a getaway day matchup on Thursday afternoon. The Orioles won a dramatic extra-inning game over Pittsburgh last night despite some spectacular pitching from Paul Skenes. Baltimore will try to secure a three-game sweep in this contest from Camden Yards. Here, I break down this MLB matchup and make my Pirates vs Orioles prediction for today.
Our Pirates vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: Pirates moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 11, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Johan Oviedo vs Cade Povich
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
- Broadcast: MASN in Baltimore region, SportsNet Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh region
Key Storylines
- Baltimore beat Paul Skenes and the Pirates last night. Skenes was brilliant but the Pirates once again failed to give him any run support. Baltimore proceeded to break a 1-1 tie with a game-winning hit down the first-base line in the 10th inning.
- These teams aren’t playing for anything more than pride at this point in the season and it will be interesting to see how they perform in this series finale.
Pitching outlook
Johan Oviedo gets the start for the Pirates in this game. He is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 20.0 innings of work. The righty has returned with lively velocity and a putaway slider that matchups up well against a lefty-leaning O’s lineup. Oviedo has twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed this season and he will try to make it a long afternoon for Orioles hitters today.
Cade Povich will start this contest for the Orioles. Povich is 3-7 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season. Povich’s changeup and elevated four-seam fastball can miss bats, but he has been homer-prone and often works from behind. Pittsburgh is light on power overall, but several Pirates handle velocity well and that could cause problems for Povich here.
Recent team streaks
- The Pirates have lost five games in a row coming into this matchup.
- Baltimore is on a two-game winning streak after taking each of the first two games in this series in extra innings.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | Home run | Over 0.5 |
| Johan Oviedo | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Day game records: Pirates 25-35, Orioles 32-30.
- The Orioles are 2-0 against the Pirates so far this season.
- Both games between these teams have been decided by one run in extra innings.
Pirates vs Orioles Model Projection
Score Projection: Pirates 4 – Orioles 3
Win Probability: Pirates 56%, Orioles 44%
Final Thoughts
It’s hard to have faith in the Pirates right now after they wasted another Paul Skenes gem last night. But I am going to dive back in on Pittsburgh here, as I think that Oviedo will also have a strong start for them on the mound today. As long as they can push a few runs across, I think they will get the win and avoid the sweep in Baltimore.
