Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/29/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Truist Park on June 29, 2024, for the second game of their series. The Braves are having a strong season with a 45-35 record, while the Pirates are struggling at 39-42. This National League matchup features two elite pitchers: Max Fried for the Braves and Paul Skenes for the Pirates. Both starters rank in the top 5 according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, with Fried at 5th and Skenes at 4th.

In their last game on June 28, the Braves comfortably defeated the Pirates 6-1. Fried, a left-handed pitcher, has been excellent this season with a 3.00 ERA and a 7-3 record over 15 starts. In his previous outing on June 23, Fried pitched well, going six innings and allowing just one earned run. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, expects Fried to continue this form, projecting him to pitch six innings, allow 2.1 earned runs, and strike out 5.9 batters.

The Pirates counter with right-hander Paul Skenes, who has been impressive with a stellar 2.14 ERA and a perfect 4-0 record in eight starts. However, his 2.66 xERA suggests he might have been a bit lucky. In his last game on June 23, Skenes pitched seven strong innings, yielding just one earned run. Projections have him pitching 5.5 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 7.2 batters.

Offensively, the Braves have an edge. They rank 12th in overall offensive power, while the Pirates sit near the bottom at 28th. Marcell Ozuna leads Atlanta with a .304 batting average, 21 home runs, and a .961 OPS. Bryan Reynolds is the standout for Pittsburgh with a .279 batting average and 13 home runs.

The Braves also boast a superior bullpen, ranked 9th, compared to the Pirates' struggling bullpen, which ranks 24th. Combine this with the Braves' recent win and their strong season, and it's no surprise that they are favored at -150 with an implied win probability of 58%. THE BAT X also projects them as 58% favorites, making Atlanta a solid pick for today's game.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes has posted a 34.7% K% this year, ranking in the 99th percentile.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

Connor Joe has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Max Fried has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 6.8 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ramon Laureano has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 12.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 20.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today’s version of the Braves projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .319 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .330 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+10.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.61 vs Atlanta Braves 4.03

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