Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 5/28/2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 28, 2025, in the third game of their series. Arizona, currently sitting at 27-28, is having an average season but remains competitive in the National League. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh struggles at 20-36, marking one of the worst records in the league. The Diamondbacks' offense is a bright spot, ranking 4th in MLB, while the Pirates find themselves at 29th, indicating a significant disparity in offensive production.

Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for Arizona, despite a challenging season reflected in his 3-6 record and 5.25 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest Gallen has been somewhat unlucky this year, with a lower 4.29 xFIP indicating he may perform better moving forward. He is known for allowing fly balls but faces a Pirates team with limited power, having hit only 39 home runs this season, the 2nd least in MLB.

On the other side, Paul Skenes will start for Pittsburgh. He has shown impressive form with a 2.36 ERA and ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced stats. However, his projections indicate he may have benefited from some good fortune this season, and he will face a high-contact Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 4th in the least strikeouts.

Betting markets have set the Game Total at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tightly contested game. Arizona's implied team total is 3.93 runs, while Pittsburgh's stands at 3.57 runs, highlighting the struggles of the Pirates' offense. With both teams aiming to gain ground, this matchup offers a compelling narrative as the Diamondbacks look to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling Pirates lineup.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes's 97.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.5-mph drop off from last year's 98.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Oneil Cruz has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 15.7% rate last year to 22.1% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue among all parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the game: #6 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.18, Arizona Diamondbacks 3.9

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

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