Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Preview – 7/26/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As we approach the matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates on July 26, 2024, at Chase Field, there's a lot on the line for both teams. The Diamondbacks, holding a 53-50 record, are having an average season and will be looking to gain some ground in the standings. The Pirates, with a 52-50 record, are in a similar position, making this National League matchup particularly intriguing.

Arizona will be sending Zac Gallen to the mound. Gallen has been solid this season, boasting a 3.64 ERA and a 7-5 win/loss record over 16 starts. However, his 4.25 xERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate so far. Despite this, Gallen is still ranked as the #27 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating his overall effectiveness. The projections have Gallen pitching 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 6.6 batters on average, which bodes well for the Diamondbacks.

On the other hand, the Pirates will counter with Luis Ortiz, who has had an interesting season. While his ERA stands at an impressive 2.57, his 4.27 xFIP points to potential regression. Ortiz's projections are less favorable, with an average of 4.6 innings pitched, 3.1 earned runs allowed, and only 3.3 strikeouts. This disparity highlights the challenges Ortiz might face against Arizona's #9 ranked offense.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have the advantage. They rank 7th in team batting average and 9th overall, suggesting a deep lineup capable of scoring runs. Ketel Marte has been their standout hitter recently, with a .348 batting average and 1.184 OPS over the last week. Conversely, the Pirates' offense is struggling, ranking 27th overall and near the bottom in key metrics like batting average and home runs. Rowdy Tellez has been a rare bright spot for Pittsburgh, hitting .357 with a .976 OPS over the past week.

The pitching matchup and offensive disparities give Arizona a clear edge. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Diamondbacks as a big favorite with a 66% win probability, which is 6% higher than the betting market suggests. With the implied team total also favoring Arizona at 4.74 runs, bettors might find value in backing the Diamondbacks in this contest.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Recording 82.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Luis Ortiz places him the 19th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Oneil Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.1-mph to 97.2-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates bats collectively rank 9th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 8.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has used his slider 5.3% more often this season (8.7%) than he did last season (3.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Pittsburgh's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+11.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.04 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.39

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