Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates
  • Jose Urena - Rangers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in below-average positions, with the Rangers sitting at 57-68 and the Pirates at 58-65. This Interleague matchup kicks off a new series, and considering both teams’ struggles, it holds importance for a morale boost rather than postseason implications.

In their last games, the Rangers got a win over the Minnesota Twins, while the Pirates fell to the Seattle Mariners. Texas is projected to start Jose Urena, who has had a rough season with a 3-8 record and ranks as the 302nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Urena's ERA is 4.15, which is above average, but his peripherals suggest he has been fortunate, as indicated by his FIP of 4.77. Urena's low strikeout rate might play to his advantage against a Pirates offense that has the 5th most strikeouts in the league.

On the other side, Luis Ortiz is slated to start for Pittsburgh. Ortiz holds a 5-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.41, though his xFIP indicates luck may have played a role in those numbers. With both starting pitchers trending poorly, this matchup could favor the Rangers, whose bullpen is ranked 6th best in MLB despite an offense ranked 24th.

The leading MLB projection system suggests Texas comes in as a significant favorite, projecting them to score 4.91 runs, bolstered by Adolis Garcia’s recent performances. Given the Rangers' higher implied team total of 4.45 runs and their strong bullpen, there may be value in backing them as they look to turn around their season.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis Ortiz's cut-fastball usage has risen by 20% from last season to this one (0.3% to 20.3%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88.8-mph figure last year has decreased to 85.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Over his last 3 GS, Jose Urena has seen a substantial fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2141 rpm over the entire season to 2083 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.7) implies that Wyatt Langford has experienced some negative variance this year with his 10.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 57 games at home (+17.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 93 games (+11.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.4 vs Texas Rangers 5.17

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