Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Domingo German - Pirates
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As of August 21, 2024, the Texas Rangers find themselves at a disappointing 58-69, while the Pittsburgh Pirates hold a slightly better record at 59-66. Both teams are experiencing below-average seasons, and while the Rangers have been eliminated from division contention, there is still a glimmer of hope for a Wild Card spot.

In their most recent encounter, the Rangers faced off against the Pirates and dropped the game by a score of 4-0, extending their struggles. Texas is projected to start Andrew Heaney, who has had a tumultuous season with a 4-13 record and a 4.20 ERA, ranking him as the 157th best starting pitcher in MLB. Heaney's inconsistency is evident, and he projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, but he also has concerning stats like allowing 4.6 hits and 1.5 walks on average today.

On the other side, the Pirates are set to start Domingo German. Despite not having started a game this season, he boasts an impressive 3.00 ERA in three relief appearances; however, his 7.61 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit fortunate thus far. German's projected performance today is less favorable, as he is expected to pitch 4.7 innings with an average of 2.6 earned runs allowed.

When it comes to the offenses, the Rangers rank 23rd overall in MLB, but they have shown flashes of potential lately, notably with Adolis Garcia being their hottest hitter over the past week. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled significantly, ranking 27th offensively.

With the Game Total set at a modest 8.5 runs, projections suggest that the Rangers could score around 4.82 runs, while the Pirates might only muster 3.86 runs. Betting lines favor the Rangers, who have a solid edge with a moneyline of -165. Given the circumstances, this matchup presents a promising opportunity for the Rangers to push for improvement in what has been a challenging season.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Domingo German's 2516.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 96th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Connor Joe's average exit velocity has declined this year; his 88.9-mph EV last season has fallen off to 85-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Michael A. Taylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney is projected to strikeout 5.8 batters in today's matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Wyatt Langford has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 10.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 21.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be sensible to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games at home (+14.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 86 games (+17.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.9 vs Texas Rangers 4.89

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