Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants Pick For 4/26/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Pirates
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -165, Giants -1.5 145
• Money Line: Pirates 125, Giants -150
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 43%
• San Francisco Giants - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 40.38%
• San Francisco Giants - 59.62%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

On April 26, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Oracle Park in a National League matchup. The Giants, with a record of 12-14, are having a below-average season, while the Pirates, with a record of 13-13, are performing at an average level. This is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Giants are projected to start left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison, who has a win-loss record of 2-1 this season. Although his ERA is 5.00, which is below average, his 4.23 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On average, Harrison is expected to pitch 5.0 innings, allow 2.2 earned runs, strike out 5.5 batters, and give up 4.5 hits and 1.9 walks per game.

The Pirates will counter with right-handed pitcher Quinn Priester, who has started one game this year and has a win-loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 8.31. However, Priester's 4.19 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and may improve in future outings. He is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allow 2.6 earned runs, strike out 3.7 batters, and surrender 5.3 hits and 2.1 walks on average.

In terms of offense, the Giants rank 17th in MLB, while the Pirates rank 21st. The Giants have struggled with a low team batting average and a lack of stolen bases, while the Pirates have faced similar challenges in terms of batting average and home runs. Both teams will look to improve their offensive performance in this game.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Giants have the 2nd best bullpen in MLB, while the Pirates have the 4th best bullpen. This suggests that both teams have strong relief pitching, which could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

In their last game, the Giants played against an opponent that is not mentioned in the list of facts. However, it is worth noting that the Giants' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Mike Yastrzemski, recording 5 hits, 5 RBIs, and 1 home run with a batting average of 0.455 and an OPS of 1.227. On the other hand, the Pirates' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Connor Joe, with 5 hits, 4 runs, and 1 home run, maintaining a batting average of 0.357 and an OPS of 1.043.

Considering the projected win probability, the Giants are the favorites with a current moneyline of -145, implying a win probability of 57%. The Pirates, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +125, suggesting a win probability of 43%.

With an average Game Total of 8.5 runs, this game features two teams with similar offensive capabilities. The Giants have a higher implied team total of 4.58 runs, while the Pirates have an average implied team total of 3.92 runs.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between two teams looking to improve their performances. With solid pitching projections for both starters and strong bullpen rankings, it could be a closely contested battle at Oracle Park.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering that flyball hitters hold a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Quinn Priester and his 50.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in this matchup going up against 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bryan Reynolds's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 8 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mike Yastrzemski will have the handedness advantage against Quinn Priester in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 85 games (+25.27 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 137 games (+13.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has only hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 8 games (-0.60 Units / -8% ROI)

Pirates vs Giants Prediction: Pirates 3.87 - Giants 4.49

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