Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction – 8/14/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Martin Perez - Padres

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will host the Pittsburgh Pirates for the third game of their series at Petco Park on August 14, 2024. Currently, the Padres sit at 67-53, enjoying a solid season, while the Pirates have struggled with a 56-62 record. San Diego's recent form has been impressive, and they are optimistic about building on their performance after winning the previous game in this series.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Martin Perez, a left-hander who has had a challenging season with a 2-5 record and an ERA of 4.78. Although his performance has been below average, Perez faces a Pittsburgh lineup that ranks 27th in the league in offensive production—an encouraging matchup for him. The projections suggest that Perez will pitch around 5.3 innings and may allow approximately 2.8 earned runs, which is about average for him.

Opposing him will be Mitch Keller, the Pirates' right-handed pitcher, who boasts a much more favorable 10-6 record and a solid 3.56 ERA. However, Keller's underlying metrics indicate he might have been a bit lucky this season, as his xFIP stands at 4.11, suggesting potential regression. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings but may give up around 3.2 earned runs, which could put pressure on the Pirates' struggling offense.

San Diego's offense ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average and 9th in runs scored, while Pittsburgh's unit has been a significant weakness, sitting near the bottom in several key categories. With the Padres' potent lineup and a reliable bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, they appear primed to capitalize on the Pirates' deficiencies and secure a victory in this matchup.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's 2413-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 80th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Martin Perez will concede an average of 2.95 earned runs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Luis Campusano's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 92.2-mph EV last year has fallen to 87.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+11.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 89 games (+11.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.9 vs San Diego Padres 5.08

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