Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees Prediction For 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees prepare to face off on September 27, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, the stakes are clear. The Yankees, boasting a strong 93-66 record, have clinched the AL East, while the Pirates, at 74-85, have had a below-average season and are out of contention. The Yankees have been dominant this season, led by an explosive offense that ranks 3rd in MLB power rankings and 1st in home runs. This potent lineup will look to capitalize on the Pirates' struggles as they try to secure home-field advantage in the American League.

Carlos Rodon takes the mound for the Yankees, bringing his 16-9 record and a solid 3.98 ERA. He's been an average performer according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, sitting at 96th among MLB starters, but his strikeout ability (26.6 K%) could exploit a Pirates lineup prone to strikeouts (4th most in MLB). Rodon’s high-flyball tendencies might not be an issue against a Pirates offense that ranks 26th in home runs.

The Pirates will counter with Jared Jones, an above-average pitcher ranked 73rd, who has shown promise with a 4.14 ERA. However, his high-flyball rate could be problematic against the Yankees' power-hitting lineup. Jones projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over 4.4 innings, which may not be enough to stifle New York's offense.

Aaron Judge has been on fire for the Yankees, batting .444 with five home runs in the past week, while Bryan De La Cruz has been the Pirates' standout with a .267 average in the same span. With THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favoring the Yankees with a 64% win probability, they are poised to take the first game of this interleague series. The implied team total of 4.53 runs for the Yankees suggests a potentially high-scoring affair, given their offensive prowess.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Among all starting pitchers, Jared Jones's fastball velocity of 96.6 mph grades out in the 97th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bryan De La Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Billy Cook, Liover Peguero, Joey Bart).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Giancarlo Stanton has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 94.4-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 10.7% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+16.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+15.50 Units / 16% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.93 vs New York Yankees 5.16

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