Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets Pick & Prediction – 4/16/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -195, Mets -1.5 165
• Money Line: Pirates 110, Mets -130
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 46%
• New York Mets - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 47.43%
• New York Mets - 52.57%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the New York Mets will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 16, 2024, at Citi Field. The Mets, with an 8-8 record, are having an average season, while the Pirates, boasting an 11-6 record, are having a great season.

The Mets are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has started three games this year. Quintana holds a 1-1 win/loss record with an impressive 3.45 ERA. However, his 5.08 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Quintana on the mound will be the Pirates' right-handed pitcher Jared Jones. Jones has also started three games this season, with a 1-2 record and a solid 4.00 ERA. His 2.41 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

The Mets offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, showcasing their average performance. However, they struggle in team batting average, ranking 24th in the league. Their power game is decent, ranking 11th in team home runs, and their baserunning is average, ranking 15th in stolen bases.

In contrast, the Pirates boast the 10th best offense in MLB, indicating their strong performance this season. However, their team batting average is a weak point, ranking 26th in the league. They also struggle in the power department, ranking 23rd in team home runs, but have an average ranking of 12th in stolen bases.

Taking into account the projections, Quintana is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters, and giving up 5.2 hits and 2.1 walks. Jones, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.2 batters, and giving up 4.4 hits and 1.9 walks.

According to the current odds, the Mets are favored to win with a moneyline set at -125, implying a 53% win probability. The Pirates, with a moneyline set at +105, have a 47% win probability. The Game Total is currently set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jared Jones's 96.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 98th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 3.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 107 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 83 games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Omar Narvaez has only hit the Total Bases Over in 2 of his last 5 games (-2.40 Units / -37% ROI)

Pirates vs Mets Prediction: Pirates 4.11 - Mets 4.11

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