Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction For 8/11/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 11, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers currently sit with a strong record of 68-49, showcasing their status as one of the top teams in the National League, while the Pirates are struggling at 56-60. In their last encounter on August 10, the Dodgers secured a convincing 4-1 victory over the Pirates, continuing their solid run.

Tyler Glasnow is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, and he has been exceptional this season, ranking as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a Win/Loss record of 9-6 and an ERA of 3.54, Glasnow is poised to dominate the Pirates' lineup, which ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts. This matchup favors Glasnow, given his high strikeout rate of 33.1% against a team that has struggled to make consistent contact.

On the other side, Bailey Falter is expected to start for the Pirates. Although Falter has a respectable ERA of 3.87, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for regression, especially against a powerful Dodgers offense that ranks 4th overall in MLB. The projections indicate that the Dodgers could score as many as 5.93 runs in this game, highlighting their offensive strength.

As the Dodgers look to build on their recent success, they are significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -260, reflecting a 70% implied win probability. The Pirates, on the other hand, are underdogs at +220, with a projected team total of just 3.29 runs. Given the current form of both teams and the pitching matchup, the Dodgers appear well-positioned to secure another victory.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Joey Bart has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 85.9-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #9 team in the game this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Glasnow has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 11.1% less often this year (45.4%) than he did last season (56.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Andy Pages has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 12.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably lower than his 23.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 81 games (+12.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.87 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.99

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