Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction – 8/9/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Jack Flaherty - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 9, 2024, in what is the first game of their series. Currently, the Dodgers are sitting comfortably with a record of 66-49, showcasing a strong season and vying for playoff positioning. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling at 56-58, indicating an average season as they aim to turn things around.

In their most recent outings, the Dodgers have dropped a couple of games in a row, but they will be looking to bounce back in this matchup. The Dodgers are projected to start Jack Flaherty, who has been a standout this year with an 8-5 record and an impressive ERA of 2.80. Flaherty is known for his high strikeout rate of 31.8%, which could pose significant challenges for the Pirates, who rank 5th in MLB for team strikeouts.

Mitch Keller will take the mound for the Pirates. Although he has a solid record of 10-5 and a decent ERA of 3.20, he is regarded as an average pitcher according to advanced metrics, and his 4.08 xFIP indicates he may have benefitted from good fortune this season. Keller's ability to limit walks (6.4% BB rate) will be tested against the Dodgers' patient lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB in walks.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast a potent attack, ranking 4th overall and 3rd in home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense is struggling, ranked 28th in the league. This disparity in offensive power could give the Dodgers a significant edge as they look to capitalize on Flaherty's strengths against a high-strikeout Pirates lineup. With the Dodgers favored at -180, the projections suggest they could score around 4.54 runs, while the Pirates are only expected to manage about 3.46 runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's 2412-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 80th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ji Hwan Bae has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 101.2-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Rowdy Tellez hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to average, Jack Flaherty has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 5.9 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

When it comes to his home runs, Andy Pages has had some very poor luck this year. His 12.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Compared to their .344 overall projected rate, the .333 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games at home (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 82 games (+14.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+15.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.1 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.49

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