Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 8/10/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • River Ryan - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 10, 2024, they sit comfortably in a strong position with a record of 67-49, while the Pirates hold a less impressive 56-59. The Dodgers are looking to build on their recent success, having won the previous matchup against the Pirates 9-5 just a day earlier, where they showcased their potent offense.

In this critical National League showdown, the Dodgers will send River Ryan to the mound. Though Ryan has posted an impressive ERA of 1.72 this season, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for some regression. He has also shown a tendency to struggle with walks, averaging 1.3 per game, which could be detrimental against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in walks this season.

On the other hand, the Pirates will counter with Paul Skenes, who has been nothing short of elite this year, sporting a 1.99 ERA. Skenes's ability to keep the ball on the ground, with a groundball percentage of 50%, could neutralize the Dodgers' power-hitting prowess, as they lead MLB with 139 home runs. However, the projections indicate that the Dodgers' offense, ranked 4th overall, has the potential to score runs effectively, averaging 4.54 runs against Skenes.

With the Dodgers' current moneyline set at -115, the betting markets view this as a close matchup, even though projections suggest the Dodgers should have a slight edge. As both teams vie for momentum, expect a competitive game that could hinge on the performance of each starting pitcher.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering the 0.98 deviation between Paul Skenes's 1.99 ERA and his 2.97 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors this year and ought to see negative regression in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

As it relates to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has experienced some negative variance this year. His 24.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 35.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

River Ryan has notched a magnificent 1.72 ERA over his last 3 starts.

• A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Gavin Lux is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today’s version of the Dodgers projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .333 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .344 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 47% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.61 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.49

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