Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies Pick For 6/16/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Daulton Jefferies - Pirates
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to clash on June 16, 2024, at Coors Field in what will be the third game of their series. The Rockies, who have had a rough season with a 25-45 record, managed to pull off an unexpected 16-4 victory against the Pirates yesterday. The Pirates, holding a 33-37 record, are also struggling but remain slightly better off than the Rockies.

The Rockies will send Dakota Hudson to the mound. Hudson, ranked 274th among starting pitchers, has had a tough season with a 2-8 record and a 4.87 ERA. His peripheral stats, including a 5.42 SIERA, suggest he has been fortunate and might regress. Despite pitching well in his last start, where he went 7 innings allowing only 1 earned run, Hudson's overall projections for today's game are not favorable. He is expected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs, 6.1 hits, and 1.9 walks while striking out 2.6 batters.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with Daulton Jefferies, who has struggled mightily in his limited starts this season. Jefferies carries a 0-2 record with a horrendous 17.36 ERA. However, his xFIP of 5.13 indicates he has been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Jefferies is projected to pitch 3.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 1.0 walks while striking out 2.6 batters.

Offensively, the Rockies boast an average lineup, ranking 18th overall in MLB, with a notable 10th in team batting average but a dismal 26th in home runs. Ezequiel Tovar has been their standout hitter with a .294 batting average and 11 home runs. Ryan McMahon has also been hot recently, with a .947 OPS over the last week.

The Pirates' offense has been one of the league's worst, ranking 27th overall. Bryan Reynolds has been their best performer, hitting .268 with 9 home runs and 38 RBIs. He has been particularly effective over the last week, posting a .320 batting average and a 1.010 OPS.

Despite the Pirates being the betting favorites with a -140 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rockies a 49% win probability, 5% higher than the betting market suggests. With both teams struggling and the Rockies coming off a big win, there could be value in betting on the underdog Rockies in this matchup.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Throwing 69.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Daulton Jefferies places him the 2nd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Connor Joe is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates project for the most runs on the slate, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Dakota Hudson's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (50.6% vs. 39.6% last year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This year, there has been a decline in Michael Toglia's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28 ft/sec last year to 27.02 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 41 games (+12.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 14 away games (+5.40 Units / 39% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 6.49 vs Colorado Rockies 6

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