Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians Pick For 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 31, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Progressive Field in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Guardians, sitting at 77-58, are enjoying a strong season and are expected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd, who has a solid 2.70 ERA this year. Boyd's recent form is particularly noteworthy; he boasts an impressive Win/Loss record of 1-0 and has shown the ability to limit runs. The Guardians are coming off a win over Pittsburgh on Friday and will aim to build momentum against a struggling Pirates team that enters this game with a disappointing 62-72 record.

The Pirates have had a rough season, reflected in their 26th ranking in offensive performance across the league. They will counter with right-handed pitcher Luis Ortiz, whose 3.36 ERA is misleading given that his xFIP sits at 4.74, indicating he may be due for regression. Ortiz’s recent outings have not instilled much confidence, and with his low strikeout rate of 18.9%, he may struggle against the Guardians' offense, which ranks 21st in the league but has the potential to exploit a weak pitching performance.

Despite the Guardians ranking 21st in offensive output, their bullpen has been a bright spot, ranked 5th in MLB, which will be crucial if Boyd encounters trouble. The Pirates, with a 20th-ranked bullpen, could find themselves in a tough spot if their starting pitcher falters.

With Cleveland favored at -160 and an average game total set at 8.5 runs, the Guardians are positioned well to secure a victory based on recent performance metrics. The projections suggest they could score around 4.70 runs, which should be enough to capitalize on the Pirates' weaknesses.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Ortiz to throw 85 pitches in today's game (13th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Oneil Cruz is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Matthew Boyd's change-up rate has jumped by 6.2% from last year to this one (18.7% to 24.9%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the last 14 days, Will Brennan's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 62 games at home (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+22.00 Units / 116% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.3 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.31

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