Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 30, 2024, both teams have contrasting seasons to reflect on. The Guardians stand at 76-58, showcasing a strong campaign, while the Pirates struggle with a 62-71 record, indicating a below-average performance. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and the Guardians look to build momentum after a solid showing in their last outing, a win over the Kansas City Royals.

Cleveland’s Ben Lively takes the mound with an 11-8 record and a solid ERA of 3.62. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season. On the other side, Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter, with a 6-7 record and an ERA of 4.25, has also faced challenges, reflected in his 4.81 SIERA. Both pitchers have struggled with consistency, but Lively may hold an edge against the Pirates’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts. This could play to Lively’s low-strikeout style, allowing him to exploit the Pirates' weaknesses.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 20th overall, but they have shown flashes of potential, particularly with Jhonkensy Noel performing well lately. Over the past week, Noel has recorded 6 hits, 7 runs, and 2 home runs, boasting a .353 batting average and a 1.215 OPS. The Pirates, meanwhile, sit at 26th in offensive rankings and face a tough task against a solid Guardians bullpen, which ranks 7th overall.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, forecasts the Guardians to score around 5.17 runs, while the projections suggest the Pirates may manage approximately 4.62 runs. With the Guardians favored to win, bettors might find value in backing them as they look to extend their success against a struggling Pirates squad.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Falter has utilized his secondary pitches 11% less often this year (36.2%) than he did last year (47.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Bryan De La Cruz is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Pittsburgh Pirates hitters collectively place 7th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 30.5% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100 mph or harder.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively's 89.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 2nd percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Lane Thomas's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 78.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 65 games at home (+8.02 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+12.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 26% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.75 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.05

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