Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves outside the playoff picture. This National League Central matchup features two clubs looking to end their seasons on a positive note, with the Reds currently holding a 76-80 record, placing them in the middle of the division. Meanwhile, the Pirates, at 72-83, have struggled, reflected by their 27th-ranked offense and 26th-ranked home run tally.

The Reds are set to start Hunter Greene, who has been good this season, boasting a 2.83 ERA and a solid win-loss record of 9-4. Greene's peripheral stats suggest he may have been fortunate this season, but he could find an advantage against a Pirates lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts. Despite his high-strikeout potential, Greene may face challenges, as projections indicate he might only pitch 2.9 innings today and allow 1.4 earned runs on average.

The Pirates counter with Paul Skenes, the #2 ranked starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Skenes has been elite with a 2.07 ERA, and projections have him allowing just 2.0 earned runs over 5.5 innings. Despite his success, Skenes' high walk rate and tendency to allow hits could be areas the Reds look to exploit, particularly given their 2nd-ranked stolen base capability.

In terms of offense, the Reds, led recently by Tyler Stephenson's hot bat, rank 16th overall but struggle in batting average. Meanwhile, the Pirates' lineup remains one of the least productive in MLB. Betting markets give a slight edge to the Pirates, with a moneyline suggesting a 52% implied win probability. However, with projections giving them a 57% chance of victory, there might be value in backing Pittsburgh in this contest.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Over his previous 3 games started, Paul Skenes has experienced a notable decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2243 rpm over the whole season to 2161 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Rowdy Tellez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Billy Cook, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Hunter Greene to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 67 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Tyler Stephenson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 95.7-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 78 of their last 136 games (+12.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 62 of their last 114 games (+6.07 Units / 4% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.06 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.1

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