Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 6/24/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Carson Spiers - Reds

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On June 24, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League Central matchup at Great American Ball Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Reds holding a record of 36-41 and the Pirates slightly better at 37-40. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams.

The Reds are coming off a loss to the Boston Red Sox, where they fell 7-4 on June 23. Despite being favored with a closing Moneyline of -160, the Reds couldn't secure a win. Similarly, the Pirates lost their last game to the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 3-1, also as favorites with the same Moneyline odds.

Starting for Cincinnati will be right-hander Carson Spiers, who has a 0-1 record and a 3.20 ERA this season. Spiers has shown great ERA numbers, but his 4.08 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky and could face regression. He's projected to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs, which isn't promising. Conversely, Pittsburgh will counter with left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has a 3-5 record and a 3.74 ERA. Falter's 4.51 xFIP also indicates potential regression, and he's expected to pitch 4.6 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs.

Offensively, the Reds rank 19th overall but struggle with a team batting average of .235, placing them 26th. They do, however, lead MLB in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the base paths. Meanwhile, the Pirates rank 28th in offense and have similar issues with a .235 team batting average. They also rank 25th in team home runs and 21st in stolen bases.

Both bullpens are underwhelming, with the Reds ranked 21st and the Pirates 16th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring game, as indicated by the current Game Total of 10.0 runs. Betting markets are tight, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%, and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects this as a close contest.

The Reds' best hitter, Elly De La Cruz, boasts a .786 OPS with 13 home runs and 37 stolen bases. For the Pirates, Bryan Reynolds leads the charge with a .275 batting average and .809 OPS, including 12 home runs. Over the last week, Reynolds has been on fire, hitting .429 with a 1.500 OPS and three home runs, while Jonathan India has been the Reds' top performer with a .364 average and 0.982 OPS.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Connor Joe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Carson Spiers is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+12.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.55 Units / 38% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.71 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.23

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