Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 6/26/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds gear up to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 26, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, both teams find themselves mired in below-average seasons. The Reds hold a 37-42 record, while the Pirates sit slightly better at 38-41. With both clubs struggling to make a significant impact in the National League Central, this third game of their series could go a long way in shaping the remainder of their season.

On the mound, the Reds will start Graham Ashcraft, a right-hander who has shown flashes of potential despite a rough 5.05 ERA. However, Ashcraft’s 4.36 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could be due for better results. His low-strikeout tendency (17.4% K rate) might not be a concern against a Pirates offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts this season. This matchup plays into Ashcraft's strength, giving him a potential upper hand.

Opposite him, the Pirates counter with right-hander Luis Ortiz. Despite his impressive 2.51 ERA, Ortiz's peripherals tell a different story, with a 4.79 xFIP hinting at possible regression. Ortiz's projections for this game are less than encouraging, highlighting a weak 4.5 innings pitched, 3.0 earned runs, and merely 3.6 strikeouts.

Offensively, neither team has been impressive. The Reds rank 19th in overall offense, buoyed slightly by their 2nd place in stolen bases, but their 26th place in batting average tells a tale of inconsistency. The Pirates, on the other hand, are the 28th best offense, plagued by a lack of power (24th in home runs) and speed (22nd in stolen bases).

Recent form also showcases two hot hitters. Jonathan India has been on fire for the Reds, slashing .524 with a 1.520 OPS over the last week. Bryan Reynolds has been similarly scorching for the Pirates, posting a .409 average and 1.455 OPS in his last six games.

Betting markets predict a close contest, with the Reds at -125 and the Pirates at +105. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Reds a significant edge, projecting them to win 61% of the time. Given Ashcraft’s potential for positive regression and Ortiz’s likely downturn, there may be value in backing Cincinnati in this matchup.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis Ortiz has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 9.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Edward Olivares has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, Luke Maile).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+12.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.77 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.35

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