Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox Pick For 7/14/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Jared Shuster - White Sox

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 14, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Pirates, holding a 47-48 record this season, look to close out the series strong against the struggling White Sox, who are at a disappointing 27-70. Yesterday, the Pirates triumphed over the White Sox with a decisive 6-2 victory, reinforcing their role as favorites in this interleague matchup.

Mitch Keller, with a solid 10-5 record and a 3.40 ERA, is slated to take the mound for Pittsburgh. Although his 3.94 xFIP suggests some luck has been on his side, his ability to pitch deep into games (projected to go 6.1 innings) provides stability for the Pirates' bullpen, ranked 11th-best according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Keller's previous start on July 8 was impressive, going 8 innings, giving up just 2 earned runs, and striking out 6.

Opposite Keller, the White Sox will counter with Jared Shuster, whose season has been far less consistent. Shuster’s 1-2 record and 3.52 ERA hide underlying issues, as indicated by his 5.18 xFIP. The lefty, primarily used out of the bullpen, is projected to throw just 3.4 innings, leaving the White Sox's league-worst bullpen vulnerable. His last outing on July 4 was lackluster, failing to get through more than 2 innings.

Offensively, both teams are at the bottom of the league, with the White Sox's lineup ranking 29th in both overall performance and batting average. Their power numbers aren't much better, standing at 26th in home runs. While the Pirates’ lineup isn't much superior, ranking 28th overall, they do have some bright spots, including Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds has posted a .281 batting average with 17 home runs and 60 RBIs.

Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the White Sox a 45% win probability, higher than the betting market implies. This discrepancy suggests potential value in betting on the underdog White Sox, who, despite their poor season, might surprise under these conditions. Sportsbooks often offer more enticing odds for underdogs that the public is inclined to overlook.

With Keller and his more stable performance up against Shuster and a vulnerable bullpen, the Pirates appear to have the edge. However, bettors may find value in the White Sox’s underdog status, provided they can capitalize on Keller’s tendency to allow hits and the Pirates’ high strikeout rate.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Out of all starters, Mitch Keller's fastball spin rate of 2408 rpm ranks in the 78th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

When it comes to his home runs, Nick Gonzales has had some very poor luck this year. His 13.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.4.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #9 squad in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jared Shuster to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Gavin Sheets has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+6.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+11.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.26 vs Chicago White Sox 4.39

Get daily MLB picks here.