Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves Pick For 6/28/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Pirates
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to clash on June 28, 2024, at Truist Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Braves are having a solid season with a 44-35 record, while the Pirates are hovering around .500 at 39-41. Atlanta is looking to build on their momentum as they aim to solidify their playoff positioning, while Pittsburgh is striving to get back to an even record.

The Braves will send right-hander Charlie Morton to the mound. Morton, who has started 13 games this season, holds a 4-3 record with a respectable 3.91 ERA. Although Morton ranks as the 105th best starting pitcher in MLB, his peripherals suggest he’s been somewhat average. He projects to pitch 4.8 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, while striking out 5.9 batters. However, his projections for hits and walks allowed are less encouraging, indicating potential trouble spots.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with left-hander Martin Perez. Perez has struggled this season, holding a 1-3 record with a 4.71 ERA. His 5.62 xERA indicates that he has been fortunate and could regress. Perez projects to pitch 4.5 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, and striking out just 3.5 batters. His projections for hits and walks allowed are also quite poor, suggesting a tough outing ahead.

Offensively, the Braves rank 12th in MLB, with an average team batting average and home run tally, but they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 26th. The Pirates, however, have one of the weakest offenses, ranking 28th overall. Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot for Pittsburgh recently, hitting .375 with three home runs and a 1.194 OPS over the last week.

The Braves bullpen is another advantage, ranking 9th in MLB, compared to the Pirates' bullpen, which ranks 21st. Given these factors, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Braves a 64% chance of winning this game, making them a big favorite. The Braves are also a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -175, translating to an implied win probability of 62%.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Martin Perez to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Rowdy Tellez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Charlie Morton must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 62.3% of the time, grading out in the 87th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.5-mph average to last year's 96.5-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jarred Kelenic, Adam Duvall, Ramon Laureano).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games (+16.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.58 vs Atlanta Braves 5.62

Get daily MLB picks here.