Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 7/27/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marco Gonzales - Pirates
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks gear up for the second game of their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 27, 2024, they hold a slight edge in the standings. The D-Backs, with a 54-50 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Pirates are treading water at 52-51. This National League showdown at Chase Field sees Arizona as the favorite, not just by their record but also in advanced projections and betting odds.

The Diamondbacks will send right-hander Brandon Pfaadt to the mound. Pfaadt, who sports a 3.74 ERA and a 4-6 record across 20 starts this season, has been better than his win-loss record might suggest. His 3.24 xERA indicates some bad luck, and he projects to continue his solid performance with 5.4 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs, and 6.1 strikeouts on average in this game.

On the Pirates' side, Marco Gonzales is set to start. The lefty has an impressive 2.70 ERA over his five starts this season but has been fortunate, as indicated by his 4.24 xERA. Gonzales is projected to give up 3.3 earned runs and only strike out 3.5 batters on average, which could spell trouble against a D-Backs offense ranked 9th in MLB.

The D-Backs' bats have been reliable, ranking 7th in batting average and 9th overall in offense. They should find opportunities against Gonzales, who is expected to allow 6.3 hits and 1.6 walks. Joc Pederson has been a standout, with a .286 average and two homers over the last seven games, making him a key player to watch.

In contrast, the Pirates' offense has struggled, ranking 27th overall and 26th in batting average. Rowdy Tellez has been a lone bright spot recently, hitting .357 with an OPS of 1.080 over the last week, but he'll need more support to overcome Pfaadt and the D-Backs bullpen, which ranks 14th.

With the Diamondbacks favored at -160 and their advanced projections giving them a 63% win probability, they have a strong chance to take this game. Today's betting lines also reflect this, with Arizona's implied team total at 4.68 runs compared to Pittsburgh's 3.82. The 8.5-run Game Total suggests a fairly average scoring game.

All signs point to the Diamondbacks maintaining their slight edge in the standings and continuing their push for the playoffs, while the Pirates may need to dig deep to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Marco Gonzales's fastball velocity has jumped 1 mph this season (89.4 mph) over where it was last year (88.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Michael A. Taylor has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 6.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 16.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen projects as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt has recorded 18 outs per start this year, ranking in the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ketel Marte projects as the 18th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+11.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.14 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.2

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