Philadelphia Phillies VS Washington Nationals Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 110, Nationals 1.5 -130
• Money Line: Phillies -150, Nationals 130
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 58%
• Washington Nationals - 42%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 63.34%
• Washington Nationals - 36.66%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 7, 2024, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park. This National League East matchup will see the Nationals as the home team and the Phillies as the away team. The game is expected to be a highly anticipated showdown between these division rivals.

The Nationals have had a tough start to the season, with a record of 2-6. Their struggles have been reflected in their performance on the field, making this a crucial game for them to turn things around. On the other hand, the Phillies have had an average season so far, with a record of 4-4.

The Nationals are projected to start MacKenzie Gore, a left-handed pitcher who is ranked as the #75 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his solid ranking, Gore has had a rough start to the season, with an ERA of 5.06. However, peripheral indicators such as his SIERA and FIP suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Phillies, on the other hand, are projected to start Cristopher Sanchez, who is ranked as the #33 best starting pitcher in MLB. Sanchez has been performing well this season, with an ERA of 3.60. His high strikeout rate may pose a challenge for the Nationals, who have the second fewest strikeouts in MLB.

In their last game, the Nationals faced the Phillies and suffered a 5-2 loss. They were considered big underdogs, with a closing Moneyline price of +165 and an implied win probability of 37%. The Phillies, on the other hand, were the favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -190 and an implied win probability of 63%.

Offensively, the Nationals rank as the #13 best team in MLB this season. They have shown strength in team batting average, ranking #6 in the league. However, their power has been lacking, ranking #29 in team home runs. On the other hand, the Phillies rank as the #20 best team in MLB, with a solid team batting average at #8.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Nationals rank as the #29 best in MLB, while the Phillies rank as the #21 best. This could be a factor to consider in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Nationals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%. The Phillies are the favorites with a moneyline of -155 and an implied win probability of 59%. However, THE BAT X projects the Phillies to have a win probability that is 4% greater than the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the Phillies.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between the struggling Nationals and the average-performing Phillies. With strong pitching from both sides and contrasting offensive strengths, it will be interesting to see which team comes out on top.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Considering that groundball pitchers hold a big advantage over groundball bats, Cristopher Sanchez and his 51.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in this game being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects MacKenzie Gore in the 95th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme groundball hitters like Ildemaro Vargas generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Joey Meneses has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 146 games (+21.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 114 games (+9.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 away games (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 4.84 vs Washington Nationals 3.42

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.