Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 4/11/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 11, 2025, at Busch Stadium, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 5-7, are struggling this season, while the Phillies boast a strong 8-4 record. In their last outing, the Cardinals endured a tough loss, further highlighting their challenges this year.

On the mound, St. Louis will send out Andre Pallante, who has shown promise with a 1-0 record and a respectable ERA of 3.86. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as evidenced by his higher 4.86 xERA. Pallante's high walk rate of 12.2% could pose problems against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks among the top offenses in drawing walks.

Conversely, Philadelphia will counter with Aaron Nola, who has had a rough start to the season with a 0-2 record and an alarming ERA of 6.35. Nola's advanced metrics indicate he has been unlucky, as his 3.64 xFIP suggests better days are ahead. His ability to pitch deeper into games—projected at 6.1 innings—could be a significant factor.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 5th in MLB, bolstered by their 2nd-best team batting average. This potent lineup will look to exploit Nola's early-season struggles. Meanwhile, the Phillies' offense is ranked 3rd overall, making this matchup a battle of strength against strength.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this contest promises to be tightly contested, and the betting markets reflect that sentiment. The Cardinals have a moneyline of +115, suggesting they could pull off an upset against the favored Phillies, who sit at -135. As both teams look to solidify their standings, this game is crucial for their respective seasons.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola has used his curveball 8.9% less often this season (24%) than he did last season (32.9%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Kyle Schwarber has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last season's 93.6-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante was on point in his previous start and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Scott usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Aaron Nola.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 7% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #27 club in the game since the start of last season by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 81 away games (+0.20 Units / 0% ROI)
• Jordan Walker has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.85 Units / 117% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.