Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 4/13/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On April 13, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Busch Stadium for the third game of their series. The Cardinals are struggling this season with a 6-8 record, while the Phillies are enjoying a strong start at 9-5. In their last matchup on April 12, the Cardinals fell to the Phillies 4-1, marking a tough stretch for St. Louis as they seek to turn things around.

The Cardinals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has had a rough go of it this season with a 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 5.84. Despite his poor numbers, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 2.37 indicates he could improve. Liberatore's ability to limit walks could be advantageous against a Phillies offense that ranks 2nd in the league for drawing walks.

On the other side, Philadelphia will counter with right-handed ace Zack Wheeler, who boasts an impressive 1-0 record and a solid 3.44 ERA. Wheeler ranks as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB, and his projections indicate he will pitch about 6.2 innings while allowing only 2.2 earned runs. This matchup presents a significant challenge for the Cardinals, especially given their offensive prowess, which ranks 3rd overall in MLB this season.

The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a balanced expectation for scoring. Oddsmakers have made the Cardinals significant underdogs with a moneyline of +160, reflecting their current struggles. However, with an offense that ranks 2nd in batting average and the potential for Liberatore to outperform his numbers, St. Louis could pull off an upset against a Phillies team that, while strong, has shown vulnerabilities in their bullpen, ranked 21st in MLB.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's 2414-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Schwarber has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last season's 93.6-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Matthew Liberatore has averaged 64.9 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season, grading out in the 1st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

As it relates to his home runs, Pedro Pages has been lucky since the start of last season. His 19.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 12.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The underlying talent of the St. Louis Cardinals projected lineup today (.309 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .335 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.15 Units / 70% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.6, St. Louis Cardinals 3.48

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

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