Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 6/8/2025

On June 8, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Philadelphia Phillies at PNC Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Pirates are struggling this season with a record of 25-40, while the Phillies hold a strong 37-27. The Pirates' offense is ranked 27th in MLB, and they are coming off a tough loss in the series opener. However, Paul Skenes, the Pirates’ projected starter, is having a standout season despite the team's struggles. He is currently ranked 2nd among all MLB starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, boasting an impressive 2.05 ERA.

Skenes has started 13 games this year and is known for his low walk rate (5.9 BB%). This may give him an edge against the Phillies, who have the 6th highest walk rate in the league. The matchup is further complicated by Cristopher Sanchez, the Phillies' projected starter, who has been effective as well, ranking 15th among MLB pitchers with a 3.15 ERA. With hitters facing a high-strikeout pitcher, the Pirates, who are 5th in MLB for strikeouts, will need to adjust their approach at the plate to counter Sanchez's strengths.

Both teams are set at a moneyline of -110, reflecting the expectation of a close contest. The projections suggest a low-scoring game with a total set at just 7.0 runs, making the Pirates' implied team total of 3.50 runs particularly concerning given their anemic offense. However, with the elite talent in Skenes, the Pirates might just surprise the Phillies if their bats can generate some support.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 8 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Cristopher Sanchez will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Schwarber has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 41.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably higher than his 30.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today, Brandon Marsh is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.5% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes's fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this year (97.4 mph) below where it was last season (98.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Oneil Cruz has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 15.7% rate last season to 24.2% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+12.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.64 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 54% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.8, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.03

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

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