Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Pick – 6/18/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Miami Marlins on June 18, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, both teams are looking to build momentum in this National League East matchup. The Phillies, currently holding a solid 43-30 record, are coming off a surprising loss to Miami. Meanwhile, the Marlins, with a disappointing 29-42 record, are striving to turn around a season that's been challenging thus far.

On the mound, the Marlins will send Adam Mazur to the hill, a right-handed pitcher projected to struggle, averaging just 4.9 innings pitched with an expected 2.7 earned runs allowed. His tendency to give up 5.2 hits and 1.3 walks per game has not helped Miami’s already shaky season. Contrastingly, the Phillies will counter with left-hander Ranger Suarez, who has been nothing short of impressive. With a 5-1 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.32, Suarez ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. His ability to pitch deep into games, averaging 6.3 innings, sets the stage for a favorable matchup against a Marlins offense that ranks 26th in home runs this season.

Despite the Marlins' average ranking in team batting average at 13th, their lack of power may hinder their ability to capitalize against a high-groundball pitcher like Suarez. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a lower-scoring affair. The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -190, reflecting their current form and the projected team total of 4.31 runs, while the Marlins sit as underdogs at +165 with a low implied team total of 3.19 runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Considering that groundball pitchers have a big edge over groundball bats, Ranger Suarez and his 50.4% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this matchup facing 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Adam Mazur has been unlucky since the start of last season, compiling a 7.49 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.99 — a 2.5 deviation.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.1-mph EV last year has fallen to 84.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+13.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games (+6.30 Units / 118% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.99, Miami Marlins 3.63

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Adam Mazur - Marlins

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